Boston Celtics Analytics
Why the analytics were so supportive of Boston's dominant title run
JUL 30
Last month, as the champagne was still flowing and the Boston Celtics celebrated their 18th NBA title, the Wall Street Journal published a quick dispatch from the deciding Game 5.
The headline: The Boston Celtics Won the NBA Title. Their MVP Was Math.
Of course, this caught our attention at HDI Headquarters. We believe wholeheartedly in the power of empirical reasoning to build a championship basketball team, and here it was on the grandest stage.
The writer Robert O’Connell made the point that in rolling to a 4-1 series win against the Dallas Mavericks, the Celtics “seemed to be doing something other than playing basketball. Sure, they were driving for dunks, rising to block shots and launching 3-pointers. But really, they were solving a math problem, again and again and again.”
In Boston’s case, that meant seeking out high-percentage 3-pointers while influencing their opponent to take a high volume of lower-percentage 2-point shots. “The Celtics statistically had the best offense in the history of the NBA because they are more obsessed than any team in basketball with the data that increasingly defines the sport,” O’Connell wrote.
Certainly, the Celtics were not the first team to solve that math problem. The leaguewide 3-point attempt rate has, after all, risen in 12 of the last 13 seasons, increasing in that span from 22.2 percent to 39.5 percent of all field goal attempts.
But it was Boston that best executed an analytically sound strategy this season. The Celtics took a league-leading 47.1 percent of their shots from 3, while their opponents took the fifth-highest share of shots in the midrange and third-lowest share at the rim.
So, while the organization has drafted well, developed talent effectively, executed a number of advantageous trades and performed in the clutch — all critical elements of their success — they also put their players in position to maximize their abilities by having an analytically driven approach to both offensive and defensive strategy. (To say nothing about the way analytics has informed their approach to roster construction — that’s another post for another newsletter.)
But here’s what’s really interesting about Boston’s dominant path to a championship in 2024: The same franchise could have made the same claims last season.
The 2022-23 Celtics took roughly the same share of their shots from 3 (though they were second in the league), and their opponents took roughly the same share of shots in the midrange. All of that ended with a thud in the Eastern Conference Finals, when Boston went nine for forty-two from 3 in a blowout home loss to the Miami Heat.
Good organizations find formulas that work. Great organizations stick with them when at first they come up short. “Anytime you’re developing a new philosophy or style, it just takes time for understanding and execution,” Boston coach Joe Mazzula said after this year’s title.
So instead of abandoning their philosophy, the Celtics doubled down on it. While every team has progressed in their use of analytically driven offense — every team in the league took at least 35 percent of shots from 3 — the 2024 NBA title went to the team that fearlessly pushed its chips to the center and went all-in. It’s not enough to talk the talk about analytics; great teams must also walk the walk.