Too Much Confidence
Sometimes the confidence you have in your team can work against you.
I'm a Yankee fan (born and raised 20 minutes from the Stadium, don't @ me). I like Aaron Boone. I don't think he should be fired, regardless of their post-season results this year. But I think he made a mistake managing game 3 against the Astros, and its one I've made as a head coach. I've seen situations where other coaches have done the same thing.
They Yankees were down 2-0 in the series and 2-0 in the game in the sixth inning with their best pitcher, Gerrit Cole on the mound. Cole gave up a leadoff double, a walk, and then a bloop single and had thrown over 90 pitches. After he loaded the bases, Aaron Boone came to the mound and took him out. He brought in Lou Trivino out of the bullpen, who is at best the Yankees 4th best relief pitcher. Trivino allowed all 3 runners on base to score and the Yankees lost 5-0.
I've lost games as a head coach where I had a ton of confidence we were going to win, really believed in my team, but in looking back I realized I hadn't been prepared or thinking clearly when things didn't go our way. I think something like this happened to Boone in game 3. The Yankees were the second best team in the AL this year and won 99 games. I'm sure Boone fully expected them to win this series, and expected it to be very competitive and hard-fought. Being down 2-0 after losing a couple of close games, I'm sure he thought the script would change in New York. Our ace is on the mound, he's going to mow the Astros down, and we need him to go deep in the game. When he gets us through 7 or 8 innings we can go to our best relief pitchers to close the game.
I know I've coached games where I haven't made the right adjustments, just because I fully believed we were the better team and we would win. It's not like it's just dumb confidence that we won't get beat. But you feel like you are prepared, you are in control of the game and it will go as expected. When a few things don't go your way you make some adjustments, but you aren't making wholesale changes.
Too much confidence can impact the adjustments you make as a coach. You don't have to take certain guys out, you don't have to go to the bench unexpectedly, you don't have to change defenses. You coach the game, but you are just expecting your team to take over the way you expected and win the game. Then you are stuck looking at a box score and shaking your head, wondering how it was possible you lost. I've absolutely lost games because I was waiting for my team to "snap out of it" and be themselves, and I knew we were good enough to win.
I thought about this when I watched the Yankees lose game 3. I don't think anything that happened in that 6th inning had really even crossed Boone's mind prior to the game. There was no scenario for Boone where he'd have to take his ace out early and try and come from behind. When he was put in that situation, he didn't really respond to the moment. He went to his fourth best relief pitcher, and ended up losing the game without using his best pitchers. He was hit with a scenario he never expected because of the confidence he had in his team and his ace starter.
It was a reminder to not get fooled by the confidence you have in your team. You absolutely have to believe in them and expect to win. But don't let that impact the way you prepare for different scenarios that might come up. You may very well be in an unexpected situation and just expecting your team to come through because you believe in them won't be enough.