FAU/SDSU
With a six second differential, down by 1, I didn't think SDSU had to foul. But I did think they should have pressured the ball and trapped. I don't think you can just let the other team run their offense comfortably and hope they miss, you get the rebound, and get an opportunity on offense with just 6-10 seconds left. At the very least I would try and make them uncomfortable and get them out of rhythm.
If you think about it, if FAU gets an offensive rebound the game is just about over. An average team gets an offensive rebound on 20-25% of their misses. You are staring at 80% right there. Not to mention their offensive efficiency and the odds that they score on any given possession. Your chances of getting the ball back down by just a point are below 50% for sure. Likely close to 30%. And given that, you have to go the length of the floor in ten seconds or less and get a good look, even if you do get the ball back. It's not a high percentage situation. I'd have to trap, make them uncomfortable, and try and get a steal.
It obviously worked out great for SDSU. The best thing they did was not call a time out. They had a time out left, but Brian Dutcher let his team play. I'd love to see the odds on offensive efficiency, late in games, off of a dead ball versus playing it live. I'm convinced the offense is much better off playing it out rather than coming out of a time out.
Think about it - if you were FAU, you would rather have just had a shot clock violation than what just happened. Just let the clock run out and set your defense in the full court against SDSU's attack. I know you aren't going to do that - you have to try and score - but you'd feel a lot better on defense if there was a whistle and you had a chance to get set. I always feel better that way. So why does the offense almost always call time out?
Give Brian Dutcher a lot of credit. He let his team play, he didn't give FAU a chance to get set, and one of his kids made a play. Prepare you team in practice for those situations and let them go.